Trade: PGA Championship: Hole in One?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player records a hole-in-one at the 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only a hole in one recorded during official tournament rounds will be considered. No hole in one recorded during practice rounds, the Par 3 contest, or any other period of play will be considered. If the tournament is postponed, this market will remain open until the tournament is completed. If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, or postponed after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Championship (pgachampionship.com/).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $745
- Total Volume
- $99
- 24h Volume
- $99
- Open Interest
- $99
Market outcomes
| PGA Championship: Hole in One? | 46% YES | 55% NO |
Market context
The 2026 PGA Championship will take place at Aronimink Golf Club in Philadelphia from 18–21 May. The market resolves to Yes if any player records an ace during official tournament rounds; practice rounds and the Par 3 contest are excluded. Current pricing on Polymarket's order book reflects a 52% implied probability of at least one hole-in-one occurring across four days of competition involving 156 players.
Historically, aces at major championships occur at a rate of roughly one per tournament, though frequency varies considerably by venue and par-3 design. The PGA Tour averages approximately 0.5 aces per event across its full schedule. At the 2023 PGA Championship, no hole-in-one was recorded; the 2022 edition saw one ace. Aronimink's par-3 holes—particularly their length, elevation changes, and green complexity—will determine probability more precisely once course specifications and hole assignments are confirmed closer to May 2026.
Key variables for traders include the final course setup announcement, weather conditions during tournament week (wind and firmness affecting green receptivity), and field composition. The PGA of America typically releases detailed course information and hole yardages in the months preceding the event. Current 52% pricing suggests the market views Aronimink as moderately conducive to aces relative to historical baseline rates. Any significant course modifications or unusual weather patterns reported in spring 2026 could shift pricing materially.
Wikipedia Context
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PGA ChampionshipThe PGA Championship is an annual golf tournament conducted by the Professional Golfers' Association of America. The PGA is one of the four men's major golf championships and is the only one of the four that is exclusively for professional players.
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PGA Championship Golf 1999 EditionPGA Championship Golf 1999 Edition is a 1999 golf video game developed by Headgate Studios and published by Sierra Sports for Microsoft Windows. The game includes eight golf courses and a golf swing method known as TrueSwing, which uses the movement of the computer mouse to simulate a golf swing in real-time as the player makes the shot. Also included is the
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PGA Championship Golf 2000PGA Championship Golf 2000 is a golf simulation game for Windows. It was developed by Headgate Studios and released by Sierra Sports. It follows PGA Championship Golf 1999 Edition. An upgraded version was released in December 2000, under the title PGA Championship Golf Titanium Edition.
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1916 PGA Championship
The 1916 PGA Championship was the first PGA Championship, which is now considered one of golf's major championships. It was held October 10–14 at Siwanoy Country Club in Eastchester, New York, just north of New York City in Westchester County.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "PGA Championship: Hole in One?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 46% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $217 if YES resolves true — a 117% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$99 in lifetime turnover and $745 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for golf contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $99 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "PGA Championship: Hole in One?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 46%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "PGA Championship: Hole in One?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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