Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes received (Zweitstimme), with higher vote totals ranking higher.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| AfD | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| SPD | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| The Greens | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| FDP | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Party A | — | |
| Party E | — | |
| Party G | — | |
| Party I | — | |
Sachsen-Anhalt holds state parliamentary elections on 6 September 2026 to determine the composition of its 120-seat Landtag. This market settles on which party or coalition finishes second in seat count. The current order book on Polymarket prices second place at 8% implied probability, reflecting substantial uncertainty about the final configuration and which force will occupy the runner-up position.
Historical context from recent eastern German elections shows volatile outcomes and fragmented parliaments. The 2021 Sachsen-Anhalt election produced a three-way contest between CDU, AfD, and Die Linke for top positions, with SPD and Greens competing for secondary slots. The AfD's sustained strength in the state—polling consistently above 20%—means second place could plausibly go to either the CDU or AfD depending on coalition dynamics and turnout. Comparable 2024 eastern state elections (Thuringia, Brandenburg) demonstrated that second-place finishes often hinge on narrow margins between parties polling in the 15–25% range.
Traders should monitor polling releases through mid-2026, particularly any shifts in AfD support or CDU positioning following federal political developments. Coalition negotiations and statements from potential governing partners will signal which parties are being positioned for top-tier roles versus secondary status. The settlement window closes 6 September 2026 at midnight; any postponement beyond 31 January 2027 triggers resolution to "Other". Current pricing suggests the market views second place as genuinely competitive rather than predetermined.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Elections: 2nd Place" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$45K in lifetime turnover and $31K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for germany contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $53 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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