Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin talk by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A talk is defined as any interaction between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. Events that occurred prior to the start of this market will not qualify toward its resolution. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| November 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| December 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| January 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| December 31 | 40% YES | 61% NO |
The market is pricing the likelihood of a direct conversation between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin occurring before the end of November 2025. This would constitute any verbal exchange—whether in person, by telephone, or via video call—and represents a significant shift from the current diplomatic posture, where both leaders have maintained public positions against direct negotiation without preconditions. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability, suggesting traders assess this outcome as effectively impossible within the settlement window.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance for assessing this probability. Zelenskyy and Putin last spoke in July 2019, before Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. Since then, diplomatic channels have remained closed, with both sides communicating through intermediaries, third countries, and public statements. Previous ceasefire negotiations have involved delegations rather than direct leader-to-leader talks. The absence of any recent thaw in rhetoric or diplomatic signalling makes the current zero probability assessment consistent with market participants' reading of geopolitical conditions.
Traders monitoring this market should track announcements regarding peace negotiations, particularly any involvement by neutral mediators such as Turkey, China, or the United Nations. Changes in military dynamics on the battlefield, shifts in Western military support to Ukraine, or unexpected diplomatic initiatives from major powers could alter the calculus. Recent reporting from Reuters and other outlets has documented ongoing discussions about potential peace frameworks, though these have not yet produced direct leader engagement. Any public statements from either Zelenskyy or Putin indicating willingness to engage directly would represent a material catalyst warranting reassessment.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$791K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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