Trade: Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $86K
- Total Volume
- $741K
- 24h Volume
- $22K
- Open Interest
- $94K
Market outcomes
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | 94% YES | 6% NO |
Market context
The market assesses whether Iran's government remains in power following a U.S. military strike on Iranian territory before June 2026. The resolution requires two conditions: confirmed U.S. military action against Iran and the regime's survival through the settlement date. Currently, Polymarket's order book reflects a 93% implied probability for regime survival, pricing in the expectation that even direct military engagement would not precipitate immediate governmental collapse.
Historical precedent suggests regimes withstand isolated military strikes without fundamental collapse. Iran itself survived eight years of warfare with Iraq (1980–1988) and numerous Israeli airstrikes on nuclear and military facilities without regime change. The 2003 Iraq invasion demonstrated that sustained ground operations, not air campaigns alone, typically determine governmental survival. The 2011 Libya intervention, conversely, resulted in regime collapse but involved NATO-led ground support and civil war conditions absent from current Iran scenarios. These cases inform the high survival probability: air strikes alone have rarely toppled entrenched state apparatus, particularly one with established security forces and territorial control.
Near-term catalysts include escalating tensions around Iranian nuclear programme developments and regional proxy activities. Recent reporting from Reuters and regional sources indicates ongoing U.S.–Israeli coordination discussions regarding potential strike targets. The market's probability reflects trader assessment that whilst military action remains plausible within the timeframe, the Iranian state apparatus—despite economic pressures and internal dissent—possesses sufficient institutional resilience to persist through a limited strike scenario. Traders should monitor U.S. policy announcements, Israeli military posturing, and Iranian nuclear developments as primary drivers of repricing.
Wikipedia Context
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Government of IranThe Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran is the national government of Iran, which, per the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, is founded on the principles of Islamism.
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Vehicle registration plates of IranIranian license plates have had European standard dimensions since 2005. Each province in Iran has multiple unique, two-digit codes that are included at the right end of the license plates in a distinguished square outline, above which the word ایران or "Iran" has been written. A province's license plates will not be issued with a new code unless all possibl
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 94% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $106 if YES resolves true — a 6% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$741K in lifetime turnover and $86K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $22K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 94%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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