Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any members of this flotilla arrive in Gaza by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Arriving in Gaza” refers to disembarking from a vessel that is part of the flotilla into Gaza’s land territory. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31? | 1% YES | 99% NO |
The Global Sumud Flotilla departed Spain on 15 April 2026 with the stated objective of delivering humanitarian aid to Gaza. The flotilla's arrival in Gaza by 31 May 2026 requires vessels to traverse the Mediterranean and approach Gaza's coastline, where they would need to successfully disembark cargo or personnel onto Gazan territory. The resolution hinges on physical arrival and disembarkation, not merely proximity to Gaza's waters.
Historical precedent suggests significant obstacles to such operations. The 2010 Gaza flotilla incident saw Israeli naval forces intercept vessels before reaching Gaza, resulting in nine deaths. Subsequent aid attempts have faced similar interception, with Israel maintaining a naval blockade of Gaza since 2007. The current 1% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects trader assessment that the flotilla faces comparable barriers to those that have prevented previous aid missions from reaching Gaza's shores. The low probability pricing suggests market participants view successful arrival as highly unlikely within the settlement window.
Key variables for traders to monitor include official announcements from flotilla organisers regarding route changes, any statements from Israeli authorities on interception plans, and real-time reporting on the flotilla's position and progress. The AP News reporting on the flotilla's departure provides baseline documentation. Traders should track whether the flotilla maintains its course toward Gaza or diverts, and whether any diplomatic negotiations emerge that might alter the likelihood of arrival. The 46-day window from departure to settlement end provides limited time for the flotilla to navigate potential obstacles.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 1%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: