Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? | 9% YES | 91% NO |
The Kurdistan Regional Government, an autonomous region within Iraq since 1992, has long pursued greater political independence but has never formally declared statehood. A declaration by end-2026 would represent a dramatic shift from the current arrangement, wherein the KRG maintains its own parliament, security forces, and administrative apparatus whilst remaining constitutionally part of Iraq. The current 9% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial scepticism that such a declaration occurs within the next two years.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance for optimism. The KRG's 2017 independence referendum, which returned 92% support, prompted immediate Iraqi military intervention and international isolation rather than recognition. Subsequent negotiations saw the KRG cede disputed territories and accept Baghdad's authority over oil exports. Unlike South Sudan's 2011 secession, which followed a lengthy civil war and international agreement, Kurdish independence lacks comparable geopolitical backing. Turkey and Iran, both harbouring Kurdish populations, oppose Kurdish statehood, whilst the United States has historically favoured Iraqi territorial integrity.
Near-term catalysts remain limited. Iraqi political instability, ongoing disputes over the KRG's budget allocation, and tensions over the Peshmerga's status could theoretically accelerate independence rhetoric. However, the KRG's economic dependence on Baghdad's budget transfers and oil-export arrangements, combined with the absence of any scheduled independence vote or formal independence movement gaining traction, suggests the probability reflects realistic constraints. Traders should monitor Iraqi elections and any major security developments, though the structural barriers to declaration remain formidable through 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$52K in lifetime turnover and $15K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $167 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 9%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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