Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market. If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| December 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
The question centres on whether the Trump administration will enact legislation or executive action eliminating capital gains taxation on cryptocurrency holdings for US taxpayers generally before the end of 2025. The resolution criteria specify that any such change must apply broadly to taxpaying persons rather than targeted corporate or institutional exemptions, and must cover cryptocurrency assets without restriction to specific types or blockchains.
Historical precedent suggests substantial structural tax reform faces procedural constraints. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act required months of legislative negotiation despite unified Republican control, and capital gains taxation remains a contentious revenue mechanism. No sitting US president has eliminated capital gains tax entirely for any asset class. Crypto-specific tax provisions have previously appeared only as narrow carve-outs or reporting amendments rather than broad exemptions. The 0% probability currently reflected on Polymarket's order book reflects the technical and political barriers to comprehensive tax elimination within a single calendar year, particularly given that such legislation would require Congressional passage and affect federal revenue significantly.
Traders should monitor Congressional committee schedules for tax legislation, statements from Treasury nominees during confirmation hearings, and any executive orders on financial regulation. Recent statements from Trump's transition team have emphasised crypto-friendly policy, though these have focused on regulatory clarity rather than tax elimination. The timeline remains compressed—substantive legislative movement would need to commence within weeks of inauguration to achieve passage by year-end, making procedural velocity a critical watch point.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by 2025?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$109K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for taxes contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $47 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 12 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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