Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift announces that she is pregnant between July 30, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements will qualify. Pregnancy announcements that are not credible, for example jokes, will not suffice. The resolution source will be statements from Taylor Swift or her representatives; however, a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| December 31, 2025 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 31, 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 36% YES | 64% NO |
The market concerns whether Taylor Swift will publicly announce a pregnancy during the second half of 2025. Resolution requires a credible announcement from Swift herself or her representatives between 30 July and 31 December 2025, with definitive media consensus acceptable as an alternative source. The current orderbook on Polymarket reflects zero implied probability, suggesting traders assess this outcome as effectively impossible within the specified window.
Celebrity pregnancy announcements typically follow patterns established by public figures' prior communications and life circumstances. Swift has maintained a relatively private personal life despite her prominence, with major life events historically disclosed through controlled channels rather than spontaneous revelation. The 0% probability reflects both the specificity of the six-month window and the absence of public indicators suggesting imminent parenthood. Comparable cases of high-profile musicians announcing pregnancies show announcement timing often aligns with album cycles, tour schedules, or deliberate personal milestones rather than random calendar periods.
Key catalysts for traders monitoring this market include Swift's touring schedule—the Eras Tour concludes in December 2024, leaving the second half of 2025 relatively unscheduled—and any public statements regarding future family plans. Recent reporting from entertainment outlets has not surfaced credible speculation on this topic. The resolution criteria explicitly exclude jokes or non-credible statements, establishing a high evidentiary bar. Traders should note the extended settlement window extends to December 2026, allowing time for definitive reporting even if announcements occur near the deadline.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2.0M in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for music contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 10 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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