Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| December 31 | 46% YES | 54% NO |
Greta Thunberg, the Swedish climate activist, has been detained by German police on multiple occasions during protests against coal mining expansion, most recently in January 2024 at Lützerath. The market assesses the probability she will be arrested or held by law enforcement between now and 30 June 2026. Current order book activity on Polymarket implies an 11% chance of this outcome, reflecting both her history of civil disobedience and the jurisdictional variation in how protest arrests are handled across different countries.
Thunberg's arrest record provides the primary historical context. She has been detained in Sweden, Germany, and the UK—typically for brief periods during coordinated protest actions against fossil fuel infrastructure. German authorities have shown willingness to detain her at coal mine protests, whilst UK police arrested her during an anti-oil demonstration in 2023. The relatively low implied probability suggests traders weight the possibility that she may reduce protest participation, face legal restrictions on demonstration sites, or shift tactics away from direct action that invites police intervention.
Catalysts to monitor include scheduled climate protests, particularly those targeting coal or oil infrastructure in Europe; any legal proceedings from prior arrests that might affect her ability to demonstrate; and changes in protest policing strategies across jurisdictions where she is active. The Gaza-related category framing suggests traders may be considering whether international tensions or shifting activist priorities could alter her protest schedule. Announcements regarding major climate conferences or fossil fuel projects slated for 2025–2026 could increase protest activity and associated arrest risk.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Greta Thunberg arrested by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$69K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for gaza contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $191 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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