Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Wednesday, June 24, 2026 between Scotland and Brazil.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw (Scotland vs. Brazil) | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| Brazil | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| Scotland | 18% YES | 82% NO |
Scotland and Brazil are scheduled to meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage match on 24 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Scotland's victory at 17 per cent implied probability, reflecting the substantial quality gap between the two sides and historical precedent in their head-to-head record.
Brazil has won eight of the ten competitive meetings between these nations, with Scotland's sole victory coming in a 1990 friendly. In World Cup tournaments specifically, Brazil has dominated: the sides met in 1974 and 1982, with Brazil prevailing both times. Scotland has not progressed beyond the group stage since 1998 and has never beaten Brazil in a competitive fixture. The current 17 per cent probability aligns with how markets typically price significant underdog performances—plausible but requiring a marked deviation from form.
Traders should monitor team news and squad announcements through to the match date, particularly regarding injuries to key Scottish or Brazilian players. Brazil's preparation and tactical approach in earlier group matches will signal their intensity; a heavily rotated side might narrow Scotland's odds slightly. Conversely, any Scottish momentum from earlier fixtures or unexpected Brazilian setbacks could shift the book materially. The settlement window closes immediately after full-time, so late-breaking team-sheet information closer to kick-off may drive final order-book adjustments.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Scotland vs. Brazil" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$161 in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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