Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 27 at 10:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Austria (-1.5) | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| Austria (-2.5) | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 70% YES | 30% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| O/U 5.5 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Algeria (-1.5) | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Algeria (-2.5) | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 92% YES | 9% NO |
Algeria and Austria are scheduled to face each other in a FIFA World Cup group-stage match on 27 June 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. The market is pricing the likelihood of additional markets being created for this fixture at 16% YES, reflecting current order book activity on Polymarket where traders are positioning around whether supplementary betting markets will materialise beyond the standard match outcomes.
Historical precedent suggests that major tournaments generate extensive market proliferation. During the 2022 World Cup, popular fixtures—particularly those involving established European sides against African nations—saw dozens of derivative markets covering specific events, player performances, and aggregate statistics. Austria's participation in 2026 qualifies as notable; the nation reached the knockout stage in Euro 2020 and has maintained a competitive ranking. Algeria, conversely, has experienced variable tournament performance, missing qualification for the 2022 World Cup entirely. The 16% probability reflects trader assessment that this particular matchup may not generate sufficient interest to warrant the overhead of additional market creation compared to higher-profile encounters.
Market creation depends on Polymarket's operational capacity and demand signals from the user base. Catalysts include the final group composition announcement, which determines Algeria and Austria's seeding and positioning within the tournament structure. Real-time engagement metrics during the tournament's opening fixtures will influence whether market creators perceive sufficient liquidity potential. Fixture timing—a late evening ET slot—may also affect retail participation levels relative to prime-time matches, thereby constraining the commercial case for supplementary markets.
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This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Algeria vs. Austria - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3 in lifetime turnover and $43K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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