Trade: Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1K
- Total Volume
- $1K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31? | 3% YES | 97% NO |
Market context
Bethesda Softworks must release The Elder Scrolls VI in the United States by 31 December 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 4% implied probability, reflecting substantial scepticism about a release within the next two years.
The 4% probability sits well below historical precedent for major franchise releases. Bethesda's development cycles have lengthened considerably: Skyrim launched in November 2011, followed by a thirteen-year gap before any mainline Elder Scrolls announcement. The studio has been occupied with Starfield (released September 2023) and ongoing support for The Elder Scrolls Online. When Bethesda formally announced Elder Scrolls VI in June 2018, executives provided no release window, and subsequent statements have consistently indicated a multi-year development horizon. The probability reflects the mathematical improbability of completing a AAA open-world RPG of Elder Scrolls scale within roughly twenty-four months from the settlement date.
Traders should monitor Bethesda's official announcements and Microsoft earnings calls for any unexpected acceleration signals, though none have materialised since the 2018 reveal. The studio's track record suggests development timelines measured in years rather than months. No credible reporting has suggested a 2026 release target. The absence of gameplay footage, release date speculation from industry analysts, or developer commentary indicating imminent completion further supports the low probability. Any material shift would require unprecedented acceleration or a surprise announcement fundamentally altering the known development status.
Wikipedia Context
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The Elder Scrolls
The Elder Scrolls is a series of action role-playing video games primarily developed by Bethesda Game Studios and published by Bethesda Softworks. The series focuses on free-form gameplay in an open world. Most games in the series have been critically and commercially successful, with The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind (2002), The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion (2
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The Elder Scrolls V: SkyrimThe Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim is a 2011 action role-playing game developed by Bethesda Game Studios and published by Bethesda Softworks. It is the fifth main installment in The Elder Scrolls series, following The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion (2006), and was released worldwide for Windows, PlayStation 3, and Xbox 360 on November 11, 2011. Skyrim was developed usi
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The Elder Scrolls III: MorrowindThe Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind is a 2002 action role-playing game developed by Bethesda Game Studios and published by Bethesda Softworks. It is the third installment in The Elder Scrolls series, following 1996's The Elder Scrolls II: Daggerfall, and was released for Microsoft Windows and Xbox. The main story takes place on Vvardenfell, an island in the Dun
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The Elder Scrolls OnlineThe Elder Scrolls Online, abbreviated ESO, is a massively multiplayer online role-playing game (MMORPG) developed by ZeniMax Online Studios and published by Bethesda Softworks. The game is a part of the Elder Scrolls series. It was released for Windows and macOS in April 2014, for PlayStation 4 and Xbox One in June 2015, and for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 3% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $3333 if YES resolves true — a 3233% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 3%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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