Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the player who wins The 2025 U.S. Open. If this player is mathematically eliminated from contention for The U.S. Open based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner based on the official rules of the tournament. If no winner is announced by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the first official results published by the U.S. Open website (usopen.com).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Viktor Hovland | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Joaquin Niemann | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Justin Thomas | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Collin Morikawa | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| J.J. Spaun | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Patrick Cantlay | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Player I | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Tony Finau | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The U.S. Open golf tournament will take place in June 2025, with the winner determined by the lowest 72-hole score across four rounds at a course yet to be officially announced by the United States Golf Association. The championship rotates annually amongst elite venues and historically attracts the world's top-ranked players. The 0% implied probability currently reflected on Polymarket's order book suggests minimal trading activity or positioning at present, which is typical for golf markets positioned far from their settlement window in mid-2026.
Historical U.S. Open markets show that probabilities remain relatively flat until the tournament approaches, then sharpen considerably once the host venue is confirmed and field commitments become clearer. Recent major championship markets have demonstrated that early-season pricing often reflects only baseline expectations; meaningful price discovery typically occurs within 4–6 weeks of the event. The USGA typically announces the 2025 host course and competition dates by late 2024, which will serve as the primary catalyst for market activity and trader positioning.
Traders monitoring this market should track official USGA announcements regarding venue selection, course setup details, and field confirmations as they emerge. Player injury reports, world ranking fluctuations, and recent tournament performance will influence individual player odds once the field solidifies. The settlement mechanism relies on usopen.com's official results, with a December 31, 2025 backstop for resolution to "Other" if no winner is declared—a contingency unlikely given the USGA's established administrative procedures.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "2025 U.S. Open Winner (Golf)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4.6M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 14 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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