Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the constructor team that collects the most points at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix, currently scheduled for Jun 7, 2026. In the case of a tie between two teams for most points, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. As soon as the results for this event are known, this market will resolve. If the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Jun 14, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1 (F1).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Alpine | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Aston Martin | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Williams | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Audi Revolut | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Cadillac | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Ferrari | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Tgr Haas | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Mclaren Mastercard | 48% YES | 52% NO |
The 2026 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix takes place on 7 June at the Circuit de Monaco, with the constructor scoring the most points across both cars determining the market outcome. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 48% probability for the favoured constructor, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about which team will lead the points tally at this street circuit. Settlement occurs immediately upon official F1 results, with an alphabetical tiebreaker applied should two constructors finish level on points.
Monaco's historical results show constructor dominance varies considerably year to year, though front-running teams typically secure the top points positions. Between 2015 and 2024, Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull have each won the race multiple times, though no single constructor has demonstrated overwhelming consistency at this venue. The current implied probability of 48% reflects genuine competitive uncertainty rather than a dominant favourite, consistent with Monaco's reputation as a circuit where qualifying performance and tactical execution can shift advantage between competitive teams.
Traders should monitor pre-season testing data and early 2026 race results, particularly from the opening rounds, to assess constructor form and reliability heading into June. Regulatory changes for the 2026 season—including new power unit specifications—remain a significant variable affecting relative competitiveness. Any technical penalties, driver changes, or strategic shifts announced by leading constructors between now and race week could materially shift market pricing. The tight settlement window (market closes 14 June) leaves minimal margin for rescheduling complications.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Monaco Grand Prix: Which Constructor Scores 1st?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $12 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for formula1 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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