Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix, scheduled for Jun 6, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Jun 13, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Alpine | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Aston Martin | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Williams | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Audi Revolut | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Cadillac | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Red Bull | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Racing Bulls | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Other | — | |
The 2026 Monaco Grand Prix qualifying session will determine which constructor secures pole position at the circuit's street layout on 6 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 48% implied probability for the YES outcome, indicating meaningful uncertainty about which team will achieve the fastest qualifying lap. Settlement hinges on the FIA's official qualifying results; subsequent penalties or disqualifications do not alter the resolution, though cancellation or rescheduling beyond 13 June triggers an "Other" resolution.
Historically, Monaco pole positions have concentrated among constructors with strong chassis balance and driver precision. Mercedes, Red Bull, and Ferrari have dominated qualifying at Monaco over recent seasons, with pole-position frequency correlating closely to overall championship competitiveness and low-speed cornering efficiency. The 48% probability suggests the market is pricing meaningful competition across multiple constructors rather than a dominant favourite, reflecting uncertainty about 2026 grid hierarchies and potential technical regulation changes affecting qualifying performance.
Key catalysts include the FIA's finalisation of 2026 technical regulations, team aerodynamic development programmes, and pre-season testing data from early 2026. Driver lineup confirmations and any mid-season regulation clarifications announced before June will influence constructor capabilities. Weather conditions during the qualifying weekend itself—particularly relevant at Monaco's tight layout—remain an unforecastable variable. Traders should monitor official F1 and FIA announcements regarding regulation stability and any circuit modifications that might affect qualifying dynamics.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Monaco Grand Prix: Constructor Pole Position" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $12 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for formula1 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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