Trade: WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on May 7?

Market context

WTI crude oil will settle on 7 May 2026, and this market tests whether the closing price exceeds a specific threshold. The 0% probability assigned by the crowd suggests either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or insufficient liquidity and participation in the market. WTI trades continuously during US market hours and reflects real-time supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical risk, and macroeconomic conditions.

Historical precedent shows WTI volatility typically ranges between $40 and $120 per barrel across multi-year cycles, though price action depends heavily on OPEC+ production decisions, US inventory levels, and global economic growth expectations. The 2020–2022 period demonstrated how quickly crude can swing: from sub-$20 to over $130 within months. Current market structure—with 0% probability—suggests traders may be pricing in either a floor or ceiling that makes the specified strike extremely unlikely, though without knowing the exact price level, the reasoning remains opaque.

Key catalysts heading into May 2026 include OPEC+ meetings (typically scheduled quarterly), US Energy Information Administration weekly inventory reports, and any major geopolitical developments affecting production or transit routes. Traders should monitor Federal Reserve policy signals, which influence dollar strength and thus crude competitiveness for international buyers. Recent crude markets have also responded to renewable energy adoption rates and recession signals. The settlement window closes at 21:00 UTC on 7 May, giving traders a defined endpoint for price discovery.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on May 7?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$122K in lifetime turnover and $139K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.

Last 24 hours alone saw $121K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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