Finance

Trade: Will US Foods (USFD) beat quarterly earnings?

0% YES 100% NO

Opened 23 April 2026 · Settles 7 May 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, US Foods is estimated to release earnings on May 7, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for US Foods’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.81 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if US Foods reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.81 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If US Foods releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $1K
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $787

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Market outcomes

Will US Foods (USFD) beat quarterly earnings?

0% YES

100% NO

Market context

US Foods, the second-largest foodservice distributor in North America, is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on 7 May. The Street consensus non-GAAP EPS estimate stands at $0.81. This market will resolve affirmatively only if the company reports non-GAAP earnings per share exceeding that consensus figure. The current Polymarket order book reflects a 0% implied probability of a beat, suggesting traders are pricing in either a miss or an exact match to consensus.

Historically, US Foods has demonstrated mixed earnings performance relative to analyst expectations. The company operates in a cyclical sector sensitive to commodity costs, labour inflation, and customer consolidation pressures—factors that have made consistent outperformance difficult. Recent comparable foodservice distributors have shown that beats in this space are uncommon when consensus estimates have been revised downward heading into earnings season. The 0% probability on Polymarket may reflect either extremely pessimistic positioning or a consensus estimate that traders view as already conservative.

Key catalysts ahead of the 7 May settlement include any guidance revisions from management, commodity price movements affecting input costs, and customer volume trends in the foodservice sector. Traders should monitor announcements regarding customer wins or losses, particularly from major restaurant chains or institutional buyers. Additionally, any commentary on labour cost pressures or supply chain disruptions could shift expectations. The settlement window closes at 13:00 UTC on 7 May, aligned with typical US market hours for earnings releases.

Wikipedia Context

US Foods
US Foods Holding Corp. is an American food service distributor. It is the second-largest food service distributor in the U.S., after Sysco. The company supplies 250,000 locations including independent restaurants, chain restaurants, healthcare, hospitality, and educational institutions.
US Foods Chef'Store
US Foods CHEF'STORE is a chain of American warehouse grocery stores located in Arizona, California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and Washington. The company operates 88 stores at the end of February 2023. One store in Arizona, 17 in California, 6 in Idaho, three in Montana, two in Nevada, tw
US Food Sovereignty Alliance
The United States Food Sovereignty Alliance is a group of food producers and labor, environmental, faith-based, social justice and anti-hunger advocacy organizations, including the Applied Research Center, Family Farm Defenders, the Indigenous Environmental Network, and the National Family Farm Coalition. The USFA advocates food sovereignty, which is the rig
Food and Drug Administration
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is a federal agency of the United States Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The FDA is responsible for protecting and promoting public health through the control and supervision of food safety, tobacco products, caffeine products, dietary supplements, prescription and over-the-counter pharmaceutical drugs (m

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Will US Foods (USFD) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 0% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

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Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "Will US Foods (USFD) beat quarterly earnings?"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Will US Foods (USFD) beat quarterly earnings?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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