Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? | 89% YES | 12% NO |
The question hinges on whether Anthropic's valuation will exceed OpenAI's at any point before the end of 2026. Both companies remain private, so valuations derive from completed funding rounds or, if either goes public, from market capitalisation. The 89% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects market participants' assessment that Anthropic will achieve a higher valuation than OpenAI within the settlement window—a notably bullish view on Anthropic's trajectory relative to its larger competitor.
Comparable cases offer limited precedent: private AI companies have historically struggled to maintain valuation parity with OpenAI, which raised at a $157 billion valuation in October 2024. Anthropic's most recent funding round valued it at $60 billion in September 2024. The gap between these figures is substantial, though venture-backed companies have closed comparable multiples within 18-month periods during periods of rapid capital deployment and product adoption. The probability's height suggests traders expect either significant new funding for Anthropic at a substantially elevated valuation, or a material decline in OpenAI's valuation, or both.
Key catalysts include funding announcements from either company, product releases that shift market perception of competitive positioning, and any movement towards public markets. Anthropic's recent product releases and partnerships have drawn investor attention, whilst OpenAI's governance structure and leadership changes remain subjects of market scrutiny. The resolution mechanism requires explicit confirmation of valuations, meaning ambiguous or disputed figures will not trigger settlement. Traders should monitor SEC filings, company press releases, and credible venture reporting for valuation-establishing events.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$50K in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $694 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 89%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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