Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Iraq and Norway, scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Iraq vs. Norway match originally scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the official…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-1 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-3 | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-1 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-2 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Iraq and Norway will meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage fixture on 16 June 2026. The market prices the probability of an exact-score outcome at 5%, reflecting the current order book on Polymarket where traders are pricing in the likelihood of this specific scoreline materialising across the 90 minutes of regulation play plus stoppage time.
Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in World Cup group stages typically see winning probabilities cluster between 8–15% for the most common results (1–0, 2–1, 1–1) and substantially lower for less frequent scorelines. Iraq and Norway have limited recent competitive history; Iraq's qualification for the 2026 World Cup marks their second appearance since 2018, whilst Norway failed to qualify for Qatar 2022 and has not appeared in a World Cup since 1998. The 5% implied probability here sits below historical norms for group-stage exact scores, suggesting either a specific scoreline with genuinely low base rates or market pricing that reflects genuine uncertainty around match dynamics.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury reports closer to June, particularly regarding Norway's attacking depth and Iraq's defensive setup. Fixture scheduling within the group stage may influence team selection and intensity; if either side has already secured or been eliminated from progression before this match, tactical approaches could shift materially. Recent form in qualifying rounds and any pre-tournament friendlies will provide calibration points for expected goal-scoring patterns.
Iraqis in Norway make up approximately 33,924 people. They are mostly refugees from the Iran–Iraq War, the Saddam regime and in particular the Iraq War.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Iraq vs. Norway - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$20 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for fifa world cup contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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