Trade: Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve adds the map Cobblestone to the official map pool by the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the listed market will resolve to "No". If Cobblestone is added to the Active Duty pool, it must remain there continuously for at least 48 hours for the relevant market to resolve to "Yes". Temporary additions (e.g., for testing) that are reversed within 48 hours will not count. If Cobblestone is added after the deadline, the relevant market will resolve to "No", even if the addition was announced earlier. For the purpose of this market, "Valve" refers to Valve Corporation, the developer and publisher of the Counter-Strike series.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $8K
- Total Volume
- $3K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| August 30 | 9% YES | 92% NO |
Market context
Cobblestone, a competitive Counter-Strike map removed from Valve's Active Duty pool in 2016, would need to be formally reintroduced and maintained for at least 48 continuous hours to settle this market affirmatively before end-August 2026. The map has remained absent from official competitive rotation for nearly a decade, though it continues to see play in community and third-party competitive circuits. Valve's current Active Duty pool comprises seven maps, and the company has shown limited appetite for rotating legacy maps back into the competitive ecosystem.
Historical precedent suggests the 3% implied probability reflects genuine structural barriers to Cobblestone's return. Inferno's reintroduction in 2018 followed years of community demand and represented a redesigned version addressing competitive balance concerns. Cobblestone's removal stemmed from similar gameplay issues that Valve never formally addressed through a rework. No other removed map has returned to Active Duty since, and Valve's map rotation strategy has favoured introducing entirely new competitive maps—Anubis debuted in 2021—over resurrecting older designs.
Traders should monitor Valve's official CS2 patch notes and competitive calendar announcements, particularly around major tournament schedules where map pool changes typically occur. The 2025–2026 competitive season may present windows for rotation adjustments, though Valve has provided no public signals suggesting Cobblestone reconsideration. Community petitions and third-party competitive organisers occasionally revive discussion of legacy maps, but these lack direct influence on Valve's development roadmap. The settlement window's August 2026 deadline allows approximately 20 months for such a reversal to materialise.
Wikipedia Context
-
Valve amplifierA valve amplifier or tube amplifier is a type of electronic amplifier that uses vacuum tubes to increase the amplitude or power of a signal. Low to medium power valve amplifiers for frequencies below the microwaves were largely replaced by solid state amplifiers in the 1960s and 1970s. Valve amplifiers can be used for applications such as guitar amplifiers,
-
Valve audio amplifier technical specification
Technical specifications and detailed information on the valve audio amplifier, including its development history.
-
Valve audio amplifier
A valve audio amplifier (UK) or vacuum tube audio amplifier (US) is a valve amplifier used for sound reinforcement, sound recording and reproduction.
-
Valve Anti-CheatValve Anti-Cheat (VAC) is an automated anti-cheat system developed by Valve and first released with Counter-Strike in 2002 to enforce rules in online multiplayer games distributed through the Steam platform. The system detects unauthorized modifications to a game, including third-party software designed to manipulate gameplay, as well as alterations to core
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$3K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: