Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket round 1 match between Team Liquid and Gentle Mates in the VCT EMEA Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 9 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win the match against Gentle Mates. This market will resolve to "Gentle Mates" if Gentle Mates win the match against Team Liquid. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Team Liquid face Gentle Mates in a Valorant Champions Tour EMEA lower bracket round one match scheduled for 9 May 2025 at 2:00PM ET. The fixture is a best-of-three elimination match within the EMEA regional playoffs structure. Team Liquid, a long-established European organisation with consistent VCT participation, enter as the favoured side based on historical roster strength and tournament experience. Gentle Mates represent a lower-seeded or qualifier entry into the bracket. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects extreme confidence in a Team Liquid victory, though this pricing may reflect limited liquidity or early-stage market formation rather than certainty.
Historical precedent suggests that seeding disparities in VCT lower bracket matches typically correlate with outcome probability, though upsets occur at measurable frequency. Teams entering lower brackets from qualification routes have occasionally defeated higher-seeded opponents, particularly when roster changes or form fluctuations affect favourites. The current extreme probability should be contextualised against typical VCT match spreads, where even heavily favoured teams rarely trade at zero probability on liquid markets.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup changes for either team, as VCT EMEA matches occasionally face scheduling adjustments. The settlement window closes 23:30 UTC on 9 May, allowing approximately 21 hours post-scheduled start time for match completion. Any cancellation, tie, or failure to complete within seven days triggers a 50-50 resolution. Recent VCT EMEA fixtures have proceeded largely on schedule, though technical issues or unforeseen circumstances remain possible variables affecting match execution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_emea. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$283K in lifetime turnover and $404K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $280K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_emea. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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