Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant match between ALTERNATE aTTaX Ruby and SK Nebula in the VCT Game Changers EMEA Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 14 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "ALTERNATE aTTaX Ruby" if ALTERNATE aTTaX Ruby win the match against SK Nebula. This market will resolve to "SK Nebula" if SK Nebula win the match against ALTERNATE aTTaX Ruby. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Map Handicap: SK.N (-1.5) vs ALTERNATE aTTaX Ruby (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
ALTERNATE aTTaX Ruby face SK Nebula in a best-of-three Valorant match within the VCT Game Changers EMEA Group Stage, scheduled for 14 May at 2:00PM ET. The 9% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects SK Nebula as heavy favourites, with the current spread suggesting traders assess ALTERNATE aTTaX Ruby as significant underdogs in this fixture.
Game Changers EMEA has historically featured competitive depth across rosters, though SK Gaming's women's division typically fields stronger-ranked talent relative to ALTERNATE aTTaX's Ruby squad. Recent VCT Game Changers matches show that group stage fixtures between mid-tier and top-tier organisations often settle within the 15–25% range for underdogs, depending on roster composition and recent form. The 9% probability here suggests the market views this matchup as more one-sided than typical group stage variance, positioning SK Nebula as clear favourites based on perceived skill differential.
Traders should monitor team roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup changes ahead of the 14 May fixture. VCT scheduling occasionally shifts due to player availability or technical issues, though the settlement window extends to 15 May, providing a one-day buffer. Recent VCT Game Changers coverage from esports news outlets will clarify current team form and any roster adjustments. The match outcome depends substantially on map selection and individual player performance across the three-map series, with no external regulatory or sponsorship catalysts expected to affect play.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_emea2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: ALTERNATE aTTaX Ruby vs SK Nebula (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$21 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $21 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_emea2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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