Trade: LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between T1 and Nongshim Red Force in the LCK Rounds 1-2, initially scheduled for May 13 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "T1" if T1 win the match against Nongshim Red Force. This market will resolve to "Nongshim Red Force" if Nongshim Red Force win the match against T1. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $59K
- Total Volume
- $801
- 24h Volume
- $642
- Open Interest
- $659
Market outcomes
| Any Player Penta Kill | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| Match Winner | 88% YES | 12% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 80% YES | 21% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 79% YES | 22% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) | 71% YES | 30% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 67% YES | 34% NO |
Market context
T1 face Nongshim Red Force in a League of Legends Champions Korea (LCK) best-of-three match scheduled for 13 May 2026. The fixture falls within the opening rounds of the LCK season, a period typically dominated by T1, who have won the regional championship multiple times and consistently field rosters built around world-class players. Nongshim Red Force, whilst a competitive LCK organisation, have historically struggled to match T1's consistency and resource allocation. The current 19% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial confidence in T1's victory, though the exact positioning of bids and asks will determine whether this represents genuine edge or simply reflects the baseline expectation that the stronger team wins.
Historical LCK matchups between these organisations show T1 winning the majority of encounters across recent seasons. T1's dominance in domestic play has been a reliable predictor of individual match outcomes, particularly in early-season fixtures where preparation depth and roster stability matter most. However, the LCK has occasionally produced upsets when mid-tier teams execute specific strategic reads or when T1 fields experimental lineups. The 19% probability assigned to Nongshim suggests traders view an upset as plausible but unlikely—roughly consistent with how prediction markets price substantially favoured teams in best-of-three formats.
Traders should monitor roster announcements and any injury updates in the weeks preceding 13 May, as LCK teams occasionally make mid-season adjustments. Schedule confirmations from the LCK official calendar will confirm the 4:00 AM ET start time. Performance in preceding scrimmages, if reported by regional analysts, may shift market positioning closer to the settlement window.
Wikipedia Context
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Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/lck. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$801 in lifetime turnover and $59K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $642 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/lck. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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