Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Winners match between ReThink and NAVI Junior in the United21 Group D, initially scheduled for May 17 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "ReThink" if ReThink win the match against NAVI Junior. This market will resolve to "NAVI Junior" if NAVI Junior win the match against ReThink. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Map Handicap: NAVI.J (-1.5) vs ReThink (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
ReThink and NAVI Junior are scheduled to compete in a Counter-Strike best-of-three match within the United21 Group D tournament on 17 May at 04:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split between the two outcomes, suggesting traders view this as a genuine toss-up. This even pricing typically emerges when both teams carry comparable recent form, limited head-to-head history, or insufficient public information to establish a clear favourite among market participants.
NAVI Junior operates within the ecosystem of Natus Vincere, one of Eastern Europe's most established esports organisations, which generally provides structural advantages in player development and tournament preparation. ReThink's competitive standing relative to NAVI's academy roster will determine much of the match dynamics. Historical precedent suggests academy teams from tier-one organisations often carry implicit advantages in discipline and strategic depth, though junior rosters occasionally underperform against hungrier challengers. The 50-50 pricing may reflect uncertainty about whether NAVI Junior's organisational backing translates to consistent performance at this tournament level.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute substitutions in the days preceding the match, as esports lineups can shift due to visa issues or internal decisions. The settlement window extends to 7 days beyond the scheduled date, meaning delays without completion would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Any public statements from either organisation regarding preparation or player availability could shift the order book meaningfully before the 04:00 ET start time.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/united21_en. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: ReThink vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Group D" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/united21_en. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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