Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between Nemiga and AaB Esport in the BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 7 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nemiga" if Nemiga win the match against AaB Esport. This market will resolve to "AaB Esport" if AaB Esport win the match against Nemiga. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: NEMI (-1.5) vs AaB Esport (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Nemiga and AaB Esport are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match on 7 May at 10:00 AM ET as part of the BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 Playoffs Round of 16. The winner advances further in the tournament bracket. The current market pricing at 100% implies near-certain confidence in Nemiga's victory, though this reflects either substantial pre-match information or limited liquidity rather than genuine certainty.
Nemiga has established itself as a consistent mid-tier European Counter-Strike competitor, whilst AaB Esport remains a less prominent fixture in major regional tournaments. Historical precedent suggests that when established teams face lesser-ranked opponents in knockout formats, the favourite typically prevails, though upsets occur in roughly 15–20% of such matchups depending on team form and map pool compatibility. The extreme pricing here warrants scrutiny of whether public perception has correctly assessed the relative strength gap.
Traders should monitor team roster confirmations and any last-minute substitutions announced before the scheduled start time, as player availability directly impacts match outcomes. Map veto announcements and recent scrim results between these squads, if disclosed, would provide concrete data to test the current probability. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on 7 May, allowing approximately ten hours after the scheduled start for the match to conclude; delays beyond this window without a determined winner trigger a 50-50 resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/bcgamemasters. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs AaB Esport (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$71K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $71K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/bcgamemasters. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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