Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Imperial and Fake do Biru in the Odyssey Cup Brazil Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 1 at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Imperial" if Imperial win the match against Fake do Biru. This market will resolve to "Fake do Biru" if Fake do Biru win the match against Imperial. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: IMP (-1.5) vs Fake do Biru (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Imperial and Fake do Biru are scheduled to meet in Round 4 of the Odyssey Cup Brazil Group Stage on 1 May at 3:00PM ET in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match. The current orderbook on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Imperial, indicating near-total market confidence in a victory. This extreme skew typically emerges when one team holds a decisive competitive advantage or when the opposing squad carries substantial uncertainty around roster stability or recent form.
Brazilian Counter-Strike has historically produced volatile matchups between established organisations and emerging squads. Imperial, as an established franchise with consistent LAN participation, typically commands favourability in domestic tournaments. Fake do Biru's competitive standing within the regional hierarchy will determine whether the current probability reflects genuine skill disparity or market overconfidence. Recent roster changes or player absences in either camp can shift expectations substantially, as has occurred in previous Odyssey Cup iterations where scheduling conflicts or visa issues have altered match outcomes.
Traders should monitor official Odyssey Cup communications for any schedule adjustments, player roster confirmations, or venue changes in the days preceding 1 May. The settlement window closes at 23:10 UTC on that date, leaving a narrow window for match completion. Any delay extending beyond 7 days triggers a 50-50 resolution, creating tail risk for positions built on current odds. Recent Brazilian esports coverage should be checked for team news or injury announcements that might justify the extreme probability or signal potential value in contrarian positioning.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/kabrafps. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Fake do Biru (BO3) - Odyssey Cup Brazil Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$39K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/kabrafps. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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