Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket round 1 match between Aurora Young Blood and Lilmix in the CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 5 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Young Blood" if Aurora Young Blood win the match against Lilmix. This market will resolve to "Lilmix" if Lilmix win the match against Aurora Young Blood. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: AUR.YB (-1.5) vs Lilmix (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Aurora Young Blood face Lilmix in a Counter-Strike lower bracket playoff match within the CCT Europe Challengers Series, scheduled for 5 May at 07:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero volume at YES, with the implied probability sitting at 0%, suggesting either minimal trading activity or strong market conviction toward Lilmix. This pricing reflects either established expectations about team strength or simply insufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful two-sided market at present.
The CCT Europe Challengers Series operates as a secondary competitive pathway for emerging rosters, with lower bracket matches typically involving teams with inconsistent track records or limited recent LAN exposure. Historical precedent in regional qualifier formats shows that 0% implied probabilities often reflect information asymmetries rather than genuine certainty—teams with limited recent match data or roster changes frequently see distorted pricing. Aurora Young Blood's recent form, roster stability, and head-to-head record against Lilmix remain critical variables for reassessing this extreme probability.
Traders should monitor official CCT announcements regarding any roster changes, player availability, or scheduling confirmations through the tournament's official channels and team social media in the days before settlement. The seven-day delay clause presents material risk; if the match is postponed beyond 12 May without completion, the market resolves to 50-50 regardless of eventual outcome. Confirmation of both teams' participation and any last-minute substitutions would be the primary catalysts for order book movement before the 17:00 UTC settlement window closes on 5 May.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/cct_cs3. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$34K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/cct_cs3. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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