Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any individual serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison, and the cause of that incarceration is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying incarceration must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? | 12% YES | 89% NO |
The federal government released approximately 4,000 pages of documents from the Jeffrey Epstein investigation on 19 December 2025, with further tranches scheduled through 2026. This market resolves positively if any individual receives a custodial sentence by 31 December 2026 where court documents or charging papers explicitly link the incarceration to information contained within these newly released files. The resolution criterion requires a direct causal connection rather than mere temporal proximity—prior knowledge of alleged misconduct would not qualify.
Historical precedent suggests low conviction rates from document releases in high-profile cases. The Panama Papers (2016) and Paradise Papers (2017) led to relatively few prosecutions despite massive document volumes, whilst the Pandora Papers (2021) similarly produced limited criminal outcomes within comparable timeframes. Epstein-related prosecutions have predominantly relied on pre-existing evidence and witness testimony rather than archival discoveries. The 12% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects this historical pattern, with traders pricing in substantial evidentiary and prosecutorial hurdles.
Key catalysts include the timing and content of remaining document releases scheduled through 2026, any public statements from the Department of Justice regarding investigation priorities, and court filings in ongoing civil litigation that might reference newly disclosed material. The narrow settlement window—approximately 12 months from the initial release—compresses the timeline for investigation, charging, trial, and sentencing. Traders should monitor announcements from federal prosecutors and any indictments explicitly citing the December 2025 disclosures as foundational evidence.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$291K in lifetime turnover and $25K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for epstein contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $341 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 12%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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