Trade: US economic state at the end of 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
- $3K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) | 12% YES | 88% NO |
Market context
The market assesses whether the US economy will achieve a "healthy" state by end-2026, defined as unemployment below 4.5% and inflation below 3% simultaneously, based on December 2026 BLS data. The current order book implies 37% probability of this dual outcome, reflecting meaningful uncertainty about whether the Federal Reserve can engineer a soft landing whilst maintaining price stability through 2026.
Historical precedent suggests achieving both targets simultaneously is challenging. The US experienced sub-4.5% unemployment and sub-3% inflation concurrently in 2017–2019, but this window closed as pandemic stimulus drove inflation above 9% in 2022. The subsequent disinflation has been gradual; CPI remained above 3% through 2023 and into 2024. Current labour market conditions show unemployment near 4%, but sticky core inflation and wage growth complicate the path to sub-3% CPI by December 2026—a 24-month horizon requiring sustained moderation without recession-driven job losses.
Traders should monitor Federal Reserve policy decisions through 2025–2026, particularly the terminal interest rate and any pivot toward easing. Key data releases include monthly employment reports and CPI readings, with December 2026 figures determining settlement. Economic shocks—geopolitical disruptions, commodity price spikes, or unexpected labour market deterioration—could shift the probability materially. The current 37% YES probability reflects consensus scepticism that both conditions align, though the 63% NO position prices in meaningful tail risk of either persistent inflation or unemployment rising above 4.5%.
Wikipedia Context
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U.S. economic performance by presidential party
US economic performance has consistently varied by the political party of the US President. According to many economic metrics, since World War II the United States economy has performed significantly better during the administration of Democratic presidents, compared with Republican presidents. Of these, the most statistically significant differences are in
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United States Economic Census
The United States Economic Census is the U.S. federal government's official five-year measure of American business and the economy. It is conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, and response is required by law. Forms go out to nearly 4 million businesses, including large, medium and small companies representing all U.S. locations and industries. Respondents are
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Economy of the United StatesThe United States has a highly developed and diversified market-oriented economy. It is the world's largest economy by nominal GDP, generating 26% of global economic output. It is the second-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP). On a per capita basis, the U.S. ranks ninth-highest nominal GDP per capita and 10th-highest GDP per capita by PPP. The U.S. dol
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "US economic state at the end of 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$3K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for economy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "US economic state at the end of 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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