Trade: UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $8K
- Total Volume
- $31K
- 24h Volume
- $417
- Open Interest
- $4K
Market outcomes
| Negative | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 0.9-1.2% | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| 0.3-0.6% | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| 1.5-1.8% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 0.0-0.3% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 1.2-1.5% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 0.6-0.9% | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| 1.8%+ | 12% YES | 88% NO |
Market context
The Office for National Statistics will release its first estimate of UK real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2026 on 14 May 2026, measuring the year-on-year percentage change. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 1% implied probability, suggesting traders assess near-zero likelihood of positive growth in that quarter relative to Q1 2025.
UK GDP growth has remained subdued since 2022, with the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasting only 1.5% growth for 2025 as a whole. The 1% probability reflects expectations of either contraction or minimal growth in early 2026. Historical precedent matters here: the UK experienced negative year-on-year growth in 2023 following the energy crisis and rate rises, though it returned to modest positive territory in 2024. A return to contraction would require material deterioration from current trajectories, making the low probability defensible on baseline assumptions.
Traders should monitor several release schedules between now and May 2026. Monthly retail sales figures, manufacturing output data, and labour market statistics will provide leading indicators of Q1 momentum. The Bank of England's monetary policy decisions through early 2026 will influence borrowing costs and consumer spending patterns. Any significant fiscal announcements from the government could alter growth expectations materially. Additionally, external shocks—whether from trade policy shifts, financial stability concerns, or global economic slowdown—could shift the probability substantially before settlement.
Wikipedia Context
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Economy of the United KingdomThe United Kingdom has a highly developed social market economy. In 2026, the United Kingdom is the fifth-largest national economy in the world measured by nominal gross domestic product (GDP), tenth-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP), and about 21st by nominal GDP per capita, constituting 3.38% of world GDP and 2.13% by purchasing power parity (PPP).
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How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$31K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for economy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $417 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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