Trade: Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Market context

The question centres on whether the House of Representatives will vote to impeach President Trump during his 2025–2029 term. Impeachment requires only a simple majority in the House; Senate conviction and removal are separate proceedings and not required for this market to resolve affirmatively. The settlement window closes on 20 January 2029, capturing the full duration of the presidential term.

Historical precedent suggests impeachment is not uncommon in modern American politics. Two presidents have faced House impeachment votes: Andrew Johnson (1868), Bill Clinton (1998–1999), and Donald Trump himself (twice, in 2019 and 2021). Clinton survived Senate trial; Trump was acquitted both times. The 118th Congress saw Republican control of the House, which made impeachment of a Republican president unlikely. The 119th Congress (2025–2027) features Republican majorities in both chambers, creating structural barriers to impeachment. However, the political composition of the House could shift following the 2026 midterm elections, potentially altering the calculus for a second impeachment vote.

Current order book activity on Polymarket reflects the 67% YES probability, suggesting traders assess meaningful risk of impeachment proceedings. Catalysts include major policy disputes, potential criminal investigations affecting the presidency, or significant intra-party fractures within Republican ranks. The 2026 midterm elections represent a critical juncture: if Democrats gain House seats or control, impeachment becomes substantially more probable. Traders should monitor congressional dynamics, any formal investigations, and statements from House leadership regarding presidential conduct.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 67% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $149 if YES resolves true — a 49% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$62K in lifetime turnover and $24K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for earn 4 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.

Last 24 hours alone saw $223 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.

The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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