Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new COVID pandemic other than COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? | 10% YES | 90% NO |
The market concerns whether the World Health Organization will declare a new coronavirus pandemic—distinct from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2—by the end of 2026. This would require WHO to formally recognise a novel coronavirus strain as constituting a pandemic-level public health emergency, a threshold considerably higher than detecting new variants or isolated outbreaks. The current order book on Polymarket implies an 11% probability of this outcome, reflecting trader assessment that whilst novel coronaviruses emerge regularly, pandemic-level declarations remain rare events.
Historical context suggests caution in assessing this probability. Between the 2003 SARS outbreak and COVID-19's emergence in late 2019, no coronavirus achieved pandemic status despite multiple spillover events and regional outbreaks. MERS-CoV, discovered in 2012, caused over 900 deaths but never escalated to pandemic declaration. The interval between major coronavirus pandemics has historically been measured in decades rather than years, though zoonotic spillover events continue globally. The WHO's pandemic declaration threshold—requiring sustained human-to-human transmission across multiple countries with significant mortality or morbidity—remains stringent.
Traders monitoring this market should track WHO epidemiological reports, emerging infectious disease surveillance networks, and any novel coronavirus detections in animal or human populations. Recent monitoring by organisations like the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) provides early warning signals. The resolution hinges entirely on an official WHO pandemic declaration; regional outbreaks or variants of existing SARS-CoV-2 would not trigger resolution to "Yes". The relatively short timeframe—approximately two years—compounds the low baseline probability of such a declaration occurring.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$13K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for disease contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 10%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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