Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Democrats 16%+ | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Democrats 14-16% | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Democrats 12-14% | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Democrats 10-12% | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| Democrats 8-10% | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Democrats 6-8% | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Democrats 4-6% | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Democrats 2-4% | 5% YES | 95% NO |
The 2026 US House midterm elections will determine the popular vote margin between Democratic and Republican candidates nationwide on 3 November 2026. This market resolves on the absolute percentage-point difference between total Democratic and Republican votes cast for House seats. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 4% probability that Democrats win the popular vote, reflecting market expectations that Republicans will maintain or expand their House majority from the current 222–213 split.
Historical precedent suggests Democratic House popular vote victories are uncommon in midterm cycles. Since 1994, Democrats have won the House popular vote only twice: 2006 (by 7.9 points) and 2018 (by 8.6 points), both during periods of significant presidential unpopularity. In 2022, Republicans won the House popular vote by 3 points despite predictions of a larger Democratic advantage. The 4% probability reflects the structural headwinds Democrats face, including historical patterns of midterm seat losses for the sitting president's party and current redistricting advantages favouring Republicans.
Traders should monitor economic data releases, inflation trends, and presidential approval ratings through 2026, as these typically drive midterm sentiment. Congressional special elections and redistricting litigation outcomes in key states will provide early signals on competitive dynamics. The Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory and employment figures will influence voter sentiment heading into autumn 2026. Recent polling aggregators and quarterly FEC fundraising reports will offer concrete indicators of candidate viability and voter enthusiasm across districts.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$32K in lifetime turnover and $44K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for democrats contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $589 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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