Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Revolut launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The stablecoin must be actively transferrable and/or tradable, announcements alone will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Revolut, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? | 40% YES | 61% NO |
Revolut, the London-based fintech firm with over 45 million users globally, has not yet launched a native USD stablecoin, though the company operates in cryptocurrency markets and has explored blockchain-based financial products. The question centres on whether the firm will deploy a dollar-pegged stablecoin by year-end 2026—a timeframe of roughly 12 months from the market's current date. The current 40% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects meaningful uncertainty about both Revolut's strategic priorities and the regulatory environment governing stablecoin issuance.
Comparable fintech firms provide context for interpreting this probability. PayPal launched its USD Coin integration in 2023 but has not issued its own stablecoin, whilst Square (Block) has focused on Bitcoin rather than stablecoins. Revolut's history shows deliberate, measured expansion into crypto services—the firm obtained its UK FCA authorisation for crypto assets in 2021 but has prioritised trading and custody over issuing native tokens. The 40% probability suggests traders view a stablecoin launch as plausible but not the base case, consistent with Revolut's track record of incremental rather than aggressive product launches.
Key catalysts include any formal announcements from Revolut regarding stablecoin plans, regulatory clarity from UK and EU authorities on stablecoin frameworks, and the firm's capital allocation decisions as it pursues profitability. Revolut's recent focus has centred on expanding traditional banking services and achieving regulatory milestones rather than launching new crypto products. Traders should monitor quarterly updates and regulatory filings for signals of stablecoin development timelines.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$16K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 40%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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