Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| December 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| September 30 | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 30% YES | 70% NO |
MetaMask, the browser-based cryptocurrency wallet owned by Consensys, has not launched its own native token despite operating since 2015. The market tests whether the company will issue a publicly tradable token by the end of 2025—a compressed timeline given that no official announcement has been made. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the absence of credible signals or roadmap commitments from MetaMask leadership regarding tokenisation.
Historical precedent suggests caution. Major wallet and infrastructure providers have moved slowly on tokenisation: Ledger abandoned token plans in 2021 after community backlash, whilst Phantom (Solana's wallet) launched its token in September 2024 after years of speculation. Uniswap took five years post-launch before introducing UNI in 2020. MetaMask's parent company Consensys has not signalled urgency around a token, and the regulatory environment for wallet-native tokens remains unsettled following enforcement actions against other projects.
Traders should monitor Consensys earnings calls, MetaMask's official blog, and regulatory developments around token classification. A token launch would typically require weeks of preparation including exchange listings, smart contract audits, and regulatory clearance. With roughly twelve months remaining until settlement, any material catalyst would likely surface through official channels or credible reporting from outlets covering the crypto infrastructure sector. The current zero probability reflects the absence of such signals rather than fundamental impossibility.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will MetaMask launch a token by 2025?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8.6M in lifetime turnover and $21K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $7K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 9 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: