Trade: Will a new country buy Bitcoin by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 13, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes"). A qualifying purchase requires a relevant country take direct custody over the Bitcoin they purchase.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $553
- Total Volume
- $30K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $551
Market outcomes
| December 31, 2025 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 45% YES | 56% NO |
Market context
The question hinges on whether any sovereign UN member state will publicly announce a first-time Bitcoin purchase between mid-November 2025 and year-end 2025. Currently, Polymarket's order book reflects 0% implied probability, indicating traders assess the seven-week window as insufficient for a government to execute and announce such a policy shift. The market accepts announcements of purchases made outside this timeframe, provided the announcement itself occurs within the settlement window.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance. El Salvador remains the sole nation with an official Bitcoin reserve, having begun accumulation in September 2021 after legalising it as legal tender. No other sovereign has followed suit despite subsequent market cycles and institutional adoption. Several nations—including some in Eastern Europe and Latin America—have explored cryptocurrency frameworks, yet none have crossed into reserve asset purchases. The 0% probability reflects this absence of momentum: no major economy has signalled imminent Bitcoin acquisition, and policy adoption at governmental level typically requires months of legislative process.
Traders monitoring this market should track government financial announcements and central bank statements through December. Recent developments in cryptocurrency regulation, particularly within the EU and amongst emerging markets, could shift positioning, though regulatory clarity has historically preceded rather than accelerated reserve purchases. The probability formation suggests the market views a seven-week announcement window as a genuine constraint, given the deliberative pace of sovereign financial policy and the absence of current public discussion from any UN member state about initiating Bitcoin reserves.
Wikipedia Context
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New Country Y-107
New Country Y-107 was a radio station simulcast on as many as four FM stations all on 107.1 MHz around New York City. Airing a country music format, the stations targeted a primarily suburban and exurban audience. Owned by Big City Radio, New Country Y-107 broadcast from 1996 to 2002; the simulcast then flipped to contemporary Spanish music as "Rumba 107"
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New Country Rehab
New Country Rehab is a Canadian alternative country band. Based in Toronto, Ontario, the band consists of John Showman on vocals and fiddle, Anthony Da Costa on guitar, Ben Whiteley on bass, and Roman Tomé on drums. All four members are established session musicians in the Toronto area, who have played in supporting bands for artists including Basia Bulat, J
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New Country HitsNew Country Hits is an album by American country music artist George Jones. It was released in 1965 on the Musicor Records label.
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List of SiriusXM Radio channels
The following is a list of channels on both the American and Canadian versions of SiriusXM. It includes a live sports, news, entertainment, contemporary stars, rock icons, Rock, Country, and Hip Hop, and R&B.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will a new country buy Bitcoin by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$30K in lifetime turnover and $553 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will a new country buy Bitcoin by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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