Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Hyperliquid 1-minute candle for Kinetiq (KNTQ/USDH) between January 25, 2026, 14:25 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Hyperliquid, specifically the KNTQ/USDH “High” prices available at: https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/KNTQ/USDH with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Only the Hyperliquid KNTQ/USDDH price feed will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $1 | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| $0.7 | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| $0.5 | 36% YES | 65% NO |
Kinetiq (KNTQ) is a token trading on Hyperliquid's perpetual exchange against USDH. This market resolves affirmatively if the one-minute candle "High" price reaches a specified threshold at any point between 25 January and 31 December 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 13% implied probability, reflecting significant scepticism about the token achieving that price level within the settlement window.
Hyperliquid tokens have demonstrated volatile price discovery patterns since the exchange's launch, with several assets experiencing rapid appreciation followed by consolidation or decline. KNTQ's price action will depend partly on broader Hyperliquid ecosystem adoption and the exchange's trading volume trajectory. Comparable tokens launched on decentralised perpetual exchanges have occasionally spiked on announcement of new features, integrations, or exchange milestones, though sustained price elevation has proven difficult to maintain. The 13% probability suggests traders view the specified price as requiring either exceptional catalyst events or a significant shift in market conditions.
Traders should monitor Hyperliquid's product roadmap announcements, changes to KNTQ's tokenomics or utility, and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment. Exchange-level developments—such as new trading pairs, regulatory clarity, or institutional adoption announcements—have historically influenced perpetual token valuations. The settlement window extends through the entire calendar year 2026, providing multiple potential catalyst windows, though the current pricing indicates the market assigns low probability to any single spike reaching the threshold during this period.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Kinetiq hit in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$13K in lifetime turnover and $259 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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