Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Ethereum hit on May 9?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 2,650 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 2,600 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 2,450 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 2,400 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 2,350 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ 2,150 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 2,550 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 2,500 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Ethereum's price action on 9 May 2026 will be determined by broader cryptocurrency market conditions, macroeconomic factors, and any protocol-specific developments occurring in the months leading to that date. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either an absence of limit orders at viable price levels or genuine consensus that the specified price target is unrealistic given present market structure. Order book depth and spread dynamics will shift as traders post bids and asks, gradually forming a more granular probability distribution across price levels.
Historical volatility in Ethereum has ranged from single-digit percentage daily moves during stable periods to 15–20% swings during market stress or major announcements. The May 2026 settlement window sits approximately 18 months forward, a timeframe long enough for substantial price discovery but short enough that current technical and fundamental conditions retain some relevance. Previous instances of extreme probability clustering at 0% or 100% have typically reflected either illiquid order books or genuine consensus around implausible outcomes.
Traders monitoring this market should track scheduled Ethereum network upgrades, regulatory developments affecting cryptocurrency custody and trading, macroeconomic policy shifts from major central banks, and Bitcoin's price trajectory—which historically correlates strongly with Ethereum movements. Recent volatility in spot and derivatives markets, alongside shifts in staking participation rates and developer activity, will provide leading indicators for directional bias. The settlement window closes 10 May 2026 at 04:00 UTC, allowing for price discovery through the final trading day.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Ethereum hit on May 9?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$79K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $79K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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