Trade: Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $200K
- Total Volume
- $6.0M
- 24h Volume
- $4K
- Open Interest
- $623K
Market outcomes
| $1B | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| $500M | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| $3B | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| $5B | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| $2B | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| $100M | 71% YES | 29% NO |
| $100M | 73% YES | 27% NO |
| $300M | 65% YES | 36% NO |
Market context
OpenSea, the largest NFT marketplace by trading volume, has not yet launched a native token despite years of speculation. The market is pricing a 25% probability that such a token will launch with a fully diluted valuation exceeding a specified threshold within one day of going live, with the deadline set for 31 December 2026. Current Polymarket order book depth reflects this relatively low conviction, suggesting traders view either a token launch itself as unlikely within the timeframe or expect conservative initial valuations if one does occur.
Historical precedent offers mixed signals for interpreting this probability. Uniswap's UNI token launched in September 2020 with an FDV around $1 billion despite the protocol's established market position, whilst Blur's token in February 2023 achieved a $1.2 billion FDV at launch after capturing significant NFT market share. Conversely, several major Web3 platforms have delayed token launches indefinitely or launched with modest valuations. OpenSea's market dominance does not guarantee a high launch valuation—regulatory uncertainty around NFTs, competition from newer platforms like Blur, and the platform's previous reluctance to tokenise have shaped trader expectations downward.
Catalysts to monitor include any official OpenSea announcements regarding tokenomics or launch timelines, regulatory developments affecting NFT trading, and shifts in the broader NFT market sentiment. The platform has faced pressure from competitors and declining trading volumes in recent years, factors that could either accelerate a token launch as a strategic move or delay it further. Traders should track OpenSea's quarterly updates and any statements from parent company Paradigm regarding token plans.
Wikipedia Context
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OpenSea
OpenSea is an American digital asset platform founded in 2017 by Devin Finzer and Alex Atallah. It facilitates the trading of cryptocurrencies and the buying, selling, and minting of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) across a range of blockchains. Headquartered in Miami, OpenSea supports fixed-price sales and auctions for digital assets including artwork, music, ga
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Death Note (2006 TV series)Death Note is a Japanese anime television series, based on the manga series of the same name written by Tsugumi Ohba and illustrated by Takeshi Obata. It was directed by Tetsurō Araki at Madhouse and originally aired in Japan on Nippon TV every Wednesday shortly past midnight, from October 4, 2006, to June 27, 2007. The plot of the series primarily revolves
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$6.0M in lifetime turnover and $200K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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