Trade: Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Noble's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1K
- Total Volume
- $504
- 24h Volume
- $45
- Open Interest
- $142
Market outcomes
| $50M | 63% YES | 38% NO |
| $100M | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| $200M | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| $300M | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| $500M | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| $700M | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| $1B | 9% YES | 91% NO |
Market context
Noble, a blockchain infrastructure project focused on real-world asset tokenisation, is preparing to launch its native token. The market will resolve based on whether the token's fully diluted valuation (total supply multiplied by launch price) exceeds a specified threshold within 24 hours of public trading commencing. The resolution window extends to January 2028, allowing considerable time for the launch to occur. Current Polymarket order book activity implies a 61% probability that Noble's FDV will exceed the threshold, reflecting trader expectations around initial valuation momentum.
Recent comparable token launches in the infrastructure and RWA sectors provide context for interpreting this probability. Projects like Ondo Finance and Pendle launched with FDVs in the $500 million to $2 billion range, though initial valuations varied significantly based on pre-launch hype, backer composition, and market conditions. The 61% implied probability suggests traders view a substantial FDV as more likely than not, though not overwhelmingly so—indicating meaningful uncertainty about both launch timing and initial market reception.
Key catalysts include any formal announcement of a launch date, details on token allocation and unlock schedules, and confirmation of exchange listings. Noble's positioning within the growing RWA sector and its backing by established venture firms will influence initial demand. Traders should monitor broader cryptocurrency market conditions and sentiment towards infrastructure tokens, as these will materially affect launch-day valuations. The extended settlement window means the probability may shift substantially once launch timing becomes concrete.
Wikipedia Context
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Noble savage
In Western anthropology, philosophy, and literature, the myth of the noble savage refers to a stock character who is uncorrupted by civilization. As such, the "noble" savage symbolizes the innate goodness and moral superiority of a primitive people living in harmony with nature. In the heroic drama of the stageplay The Conquest of Granada by the Spaniards (1
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Denis NobleDenis Noble is a British physiologist and biologist who held the Burdon Sanderson Chair of Cardiovascular Physiology at the University of Oxford from 1984 to 2004 and was appointed professor emeritus and co-director of computational physiology. Since 2025, he is a Distinguished Chair Professor at Daegu-Gyeongbuk Institute of Science and Technology (DGIST).
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Noble Drew AliNoble Drew Ali was an American civil and religious leader who, in the early 20th century, founded a series of organizations that he ultimately placed under the umbrella title, the Moorish Divine and National Movement of the World; including the Canaanite Temple (1913–1916), the Moorish Holy Temple of Science (1925–1928), and the Moorish Science Temple of Ame
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David Noble (footballer, born 1982)David James Noble is a football manager and former player, playing as a midfielder. He is currently assistant manager at Hemel Hempstead Town.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$504 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $45 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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