Trade: Ink FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ink's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ink (http://inkonchain.com/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $68K
- Total Volume
- $561K
- 24h Volume
- $108
- Open Interest
- $104K
Market outcomes
| $1B | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| $500M | 67% YES | 33% NO |
| $2B | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| $3B | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| $250M | 83% YES | 17% NO |
Market context
Ink, a blockchain platform backed by Kraken and focused on gaming and consumer applications, is expected to launch its native token sometime before the end of 2026. This market resolves based on whether the token's fully diluted valuation exceeds a specified threshold on the first day of public trading. The resolution hinges on the token achieving active, public transferability—a technical requirement that distinguishes actual launch from announcement or testnet phases.
Historical precedent suggests wide variance in day-one valuations for crypto tokens with established backing. Platforms like Arbitrum launched with significant institutional support and settled at roughly $1bn FDV on day one, whilst others with comparable infrastructure have ranged from $200m to $5bn depending on pre-launch momentum and market conditions. The 38% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about both the timing of Ink's launch and the valuation it will command at that specific moment. Current market depth shows traders pricing in execution risk—delays beyond 2026 would resolve the market to "No"—alongside volatility in how the broader crypto market values new L2 and application-layer tokens.
Traders should monitor Ink's development roadmap announcements and any updates from Kraken regarding token distribution mechanics. The broader crypto market's sentiment towards gaming-focused blockchains will materially influence day-one pricing. Regulatory clarity on token launches and any competing platform announcements in the gaming space could shift the probability meaningfully in either direction before the December 2026 deadline.
Wikipedia Context
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Ink (TV series)
Ink is an American television sitcom which aired on CBS from October 21, 1996, to May 19, 1997, that starred real-life husband and wife Ted Danson and Mary Steenburgen as divorced newspaper journalists, allegedly inspired by the film His Girl Friday.
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Ink FlagThe Ink Flag was a handmade Israeli flag raised in March 1949 during the 1948 Arab–Israeli War to mark the capture of Umm Rashrash. The flag’s display in what later became the city of Eilat was replaced two hours later by an official flag when the Golani Brigade arrived. The raising of the Ink Flag is considered to be the end of the war and the birth of Isra
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In Advance of the Broken Arm (album)In Advance of the Broken Arm is the debut album by Marnie Stern, released in 2007. Kill Rock Stars handled the CD release, and the vinyl with a shorter track listing came out on Rampage Records. The title comes from a work of art of the same title by artist Marcel Duchamp.
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Ink Dish
Ink Dish is an American tableware design company located in San Diego, California. The company uses designs by contemporary underground artists for their line of porcelain dinnerware. Ink Dish was founded in 2008 by husband and wife David Harding and Caroline Pople.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Ink FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$561K in lifetime turnover and $68K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $108 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Ink FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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