Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market resolves based on whether Hyperliquid's price on Chainlink's HYPE/USD feed closes higher or flat during a five-minute window on 5 May at 9:55–10:00PM ET. The settlement window extends to 2 June 2026, allowing for delayed price feeds or data corrections. Hyperliquid, a decentralised perpetuals exchange launched in 2023, has established itself as a significant player in on-chain derivatives trading, with HYPE tokens serving governance and incentive functions within the ecosystem.
The 0% implied probability reflects extreme bearish positioning on Polymarket's order book, suggesting traders are pricing in a near-certain price decline or flat movement during this specific five-minute interval. Such extreme probabilities in short-window crypto markets typically emerge when liquidity is sparse or when the market structure itself creates asymmetric risk—here, the five-minute resolution window is narrow enough that random volatility, order flow imbalances, or thin order book depth can dominate price action. Historical precedent shows that five-minute crypto price predictions rarely sustain extreme probabilities above 95% or below 5%, as microstructure noise and execution slippage introduce genuine uncertainty.
Traders monitoring this market should track Hyperliquid's trading volume and volatility patterns in the hours preceding the window, alongside broader crypto market sentiment and Bitcoin's price action, which typically anchors altcoin movements. Any significant protocol announcements, exchange listings, or liquidation cascades in the perpetuals market could shift positioning sharply. The reliance on Chainlink's specific data feed rather than spot markets introduces an additional dependency—feed latency or price divergence between Chainlink and actual exchange prices could affect settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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