Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market tracks whether Hyperliquid's price will be higher or equal at 4:45AM ET on 3 May 2026 compared to 4:40AM ET the same morning—a five-minute window. The resolution uses Chainlink's HYPE/USD data stream rather than spot exchange prices, which can occasionally diverge during periods of low liquidity or network congestion. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects extremely bearish positioning, suggesting traders expect a price decline over this narrow timeframe or are pricing in minimal trading activity during early morning US hours.
Five-minute price movements in crypto typically correlate with broader market momentum, news releases, or liquidation cascades rather than fundamental shifts. Historical precedent suggests that ultra-short windows favour the status quo—most five-minute intervals close flat or slightly positive given typical bid-ask spreads and the cost of executing large moves. The 0% probability is notably extreme for any directional bet; such pricing usually emerges when order book depth is thin or when a single large sell order has moved the market sharply downward just before the window opens.
Traders should monitor Hyperliquid's perpetual futures funding rates and open interest leading into the settlement window, as elevated leverage can trigger sudden reversals. Any announcements regarding the Hyperliquid protocol, exchange updates, or broader crypto market volatility in the hours before 4:40AM ET could shift liquidity conditions. The early morning timing (US Eastern) typically sees lower trading volume, which amplifies the impact of smaller orders on Chainlink's price feed.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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