Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Arcium's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Arcium will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $100M | 61% YES | 39% NO |
| $300M | 59% YES | 42% NO |
| $800M | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| $50M | 85% YES | 15% NO |
| $200M | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| $500M | 16% YES | 84% NO |
| $1B | 19% YES | 81% NO |
Arcium is preparing to launch a native token, with market participants currently pricing a 59% probability that its fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within one day of going live. The FDV calculation uses total token supply multiplied by the initial trading price, measured at 4:00 PM ET on the day following public launch. Only an official Arcium token qualifies; synthetic assets, stablecoins, and liquidity staking tokens are excluded from settlement.
Recent crypto token launches have shown considerable variance in initial valuations, with outcomes heavily dependent on pre-launch hype, exchange listings, and liquidity conditions. Projects with substantial venture backing and established user bases—such as Arbitrum's 2023 launch—have typically achieved higher FDVs immediately post-launch, whilst lesser-known protocols have struggled to maintain valuations above initial expectations. Arcium's positioning within the privacy and encryption infrastructure space provides some comparable reference points, though the specific threshold in this market's title will determine whether the current 59% probability reflects realistic expectations or market overconfidence.
Key variables include the timing and exchange listings for the token, any announcements regarding tokenomics or unlock schedules, and broader crypto market conditions at launch. Traders should monitor Arcium's official communications for launch date confirmation and liquidity commitments from major exchanges. The Polymarket order book currently reflects the 59% probability, with this price subject to shift as launch approaches and additional information emerges regarding initial token distribution and trading venue participation.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $127 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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