Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a market on whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an exploit or hack of value at least $100 million USD equivalent between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Decentralized exchanges and lending protocol hacks will count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/), however a credible consensus of reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The crypto sector faces persistent security vulnerabilities across exchanges, decentralised finance protocols, and custodial services. The market is pricing a near-certainty that at least one exploit exceeding $100 million will occur between now and the end of 2026. This reflects the historical frequency of such events: the Rekt News leaderboard documents over 14 incidents exceeding this threshold since 2020, including the $625 million Poly Network hack (2021), the $100 million Nomad bridge exploit (2022), and the $100 million Mango Markets attack (2023). The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book suggests traders view another nine-figure breach as inevitable given the sector's scale, the proliferation of cross-chain bridges, and the continued concentration of liquidity in protocols with varying security maturity.
Catalysts shaping this market include regulatory developments affecting custody standards, major protocol upgrades introducing new attack surfaces, and seasonal patterns in exploit discovery. Recent reporting from Chainalysis (December 2024) highlighted that bridge protocols remain disproportionately targeted, accounting for significant losses in 2024. Traders should monitor announcements from major exchanges regarding security audits, insurance pool adequacy, and any material vulnerabilities disclosed in widely-used smart contract libraries. The extended settlement window to January 2027 captures a full year of market activity, during which both established platforms and emerging DeFi primitives will face scrutiny from sophisticated attackers operating with increasingly refined techniques.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$146K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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