Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <1,800 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 1,800-1,900 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 1,900-2,000 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 2,000-2,100 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| 2,100-2,200 | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| 2,200-2,300 | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| 2,300-2,400 | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| 2,400-2,500 | 10% YES | 90% NO |
This market settles on the Binance ETH/USDT closing price at noon Eastern Time on 20 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle data. The 3% implied probability reflects the current order book depth on Polymarket, where traders are pricing a narrow band outcome as highly unlikely relative to broader price ranges. Settlement depends entirely on Binance's recorded close at that specific timestamp, with ties resolved to the higher bracket.
Ethereum's price volatility has historically made pinpoint predictions at specific timestamps exceptionally difficult. Over the past five years, daily price swings of 5–15% have been routine during periods of moderate market stress, whilst quieter periods see tighter ranges. The extreme specificity of this market—a single minute's close rather than daily or weekly prices—compounds the difficulty; even modest intraday volatility can shift outcomes between brackets. Comparable timestamp-specific crypto markets have seen similar low probabilities assigned to narrow ranges, reflecting the inherent noise in minute-level price data.
Traders monitoring this through May 2026 should track macroeconomic developments affecting risk appetite, regulatory announcements from major jurisdictions, and Ethereum network upgrades or technical developments. Broader cryptocurrency market sentiment, particularly Bitcoin's trajectory, typically drives Ethereum price action. Institutional flows and spot exchange volumes on Binance itself matter for intraday price formation. The settlement window extends to mid-May 2026, providing roughly eighteen months for market conditions to evolve; early positioning reflects current uncertainty rather than conviction about medium-term price direction.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum price on May 20?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto prices contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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