Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the next club Cristiano Ronaldo officially joins by August 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. If Cristiano Ronaldo does not officially join a new club by August 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Al Nassr”. If Cristiano Ronaldo signs a contract that includes a delayed transfer or loan-back clause requiring him to remain at Al Nassr for a specified period before joining another club, this market will resolve to the club he is officially contracted to join following that period. If Cristiano Ronaldo joins a club that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Austin FC | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Charlotte FC | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Colorado Rapids | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| D.C. United | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| FC Dallas | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Inter Miami CF | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Los Angeles FC (LAFC) | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Nashville SC | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Cristiano Ronaldo currently plays for Saudi Arabian club Al Nassr under a contract that runs through 2025. The market resolves to whichever club he officially joins next, with Al Nassr serving as the default resolution if no transfer occurs by 31 August 2026. The 49% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the 39-year-old will secure a move to another club within the settlement window, or whether he will extend his Al Nassr tenure or transition to retirement.
Ronaldo's recent transfer history provides context for reading current odds. His 2022 departure from Manchester United came after public dispute, followed by a swift move to Al Nassr in January 2023 at reported wages of £175 million over two and a half years. Previous career moves—including his 2018 Real Madrid exit to Juventus and subsequent 2021 return to Manchester United—occurred when he remained a regular European starter. At his current age and with Al Nassr's financial commitment, the probability of a comparable high-profile transfer is materially lower than during his peak years, though not negligible given his continued marketability.
Key catalysts for traders include Al Nassr's contract extension negotiations, which typically accelerate in late 2024 or early 2025, and any public statements from Ronaldo regarding his future plans. European clubs' summer transfer windows in June-August 2025 and 2026 represent critical periods when concrete offers might materialise. Recent reporting from ESPN and Sky Sports has noted interest from various clubs, though most remain speculative. The resolution hinges on official contract signatures rather than rumour, meaning traders should weight documented developments heavily against speculation.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$52K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for cristiano ronaldo contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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