Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ≤0.3% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 0.4% | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 0.5% | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| 0.6% | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| 0.7% | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| 0.8% | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 0.9% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 1.0% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
The market concerns the month-on-month percentage change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers in April 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS will release this figure on 12 May 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 1% implied probability for a YES resolution, suggesting traders expect the monthly change to fall outside the threshold that would trigger affirmative settlement.
Historical monthly CPI movements provide context for interpreting this low probability. From 2020 onwards, month-on-month seasonally adjusted changes have typically ranged between −0.1% and +0.5%, with most readings clustering near +0.3% to +0.4%. The exceptional volatility of 2021–2022, when monthly prints reached +0.8% to +1.0%, represented an outlier period driven by energy shocks and supply-chain disruptions. Current market pricing suggests traders expect April 2026 conditions to reflect a normalised inflation regime rather than the elevated readings of the recent past.
Traders monitoring this contract should track energy prices in the months preceding April, given crude oil's historical influence on monthly CPI swings. Labour market data and wage growth figures released in the first quarter of 2026 will also inform expectations around service-sector inflation. The Federal Reserve's policy stance and any guidance issued in early 2026 could shift expectations around underlying demand pressures. The exact settlement threshold—which determines whether the monthly change qualifies for YES resolution—will be clarified in the market's full terms upon publication.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "April Inflation US - Monthly" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$79K in lifetime turnover and $35K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for cpi contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $13K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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