Cba

Trade: CBA: Winner

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is determined as the champion of the CBA. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the champion of CBA per the rules of CBA (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after December 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$277
Total Volume
$123
24h Volume
—
Open Interest
$197
Trade this market on PolyGram →

Market outcomes

Beijing Ducks 49% YES52% NO
Beijing Royal Fighters 0% YES100% NO
Fujian 0% YES100% NO
Guangdong Southern Tigers 47% YES53% NO
Guangzhou Loong Lions 0% YES100% NO
Jiangsu Dragons 0% YES100% NO
Jilin Northeast Tigers 0% YES100% NO
Liaoning Flying Leopards 0% YES100% NO

Market context

The China Basketball Association championship will be determined through the 2025–26 season, with the winner crowned before the settlement deadline of 12 December 2026. The 48% implied probability reflects current market pricing on Polymarket's order book, where traders are balancing the competitive field against uncertainty surrounding team rosters, injuries, and performance trajectories across the league's twenty participating clubs.

Historical CBA championship outcomes show concentration among a handful of elite franchises. Liaoning, Guangdong, and Beijing have dominated the competition over the past decade, collectively winning most titles since 2015. The current 48% probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether the listed team can overcome this established hierarchy, or alternatively, reflects a squad positioned amongst the league's contenders. Market participants are pricing in both the team's current roster strength and the volatility inherent in a season-long competition where mid-season trades and injury management significantly alter championship trajectories.

Key catalysts include the CBA regular season schedule, which typically runs from October through March, with playoffs extending into April or May. Traders should monitor roster announcements, particularly foreign player signings and domestic transfers during the winter window, as these moves materially shift competitive balance. Recent reporting on team performance and playoff seeding will become increasingly relevant as the season progresses. The settlement window's December 2026 deadline creates a hard constraint; any championship determination must occur before this date, meaning markets will close once playoff results are finalised.

Wikipedia Context

  • CBA All-Star Game (China)

    The CBA All-Star Game is an annual basketball event in China, organised by the Chinese Basketball Association. It is held annually during the mid-season.

  • CBAFT-DT

    CBAFT-DT is an Ici Radio-Canada Télé station in Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada, serving Acadians in the Maritimes and Franco-Newfoundlanders in Newfoundland and Labrador. It is part of a twinstick with Fredericton-based CBC Television station CBAT-DT. CBAFT-DT's studios are located on Main Street in Moncton, adjacent to the Dieppe border and the CF Champlain

  • CBAM-FM
    CBAM-FM

    CBAM-FM is a public, non-commercial radio station in Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada. It is the local Radio One station of the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. The studios and offices are at 165 Main Street, in a building known as Ici Acadie, along with facilities for co-owned CBA-FM, CBAF-FM, CBAFT-DT and CBAT-DT.

  • CBA Most Valuable Player

    Chinese Basketball Association (CBA) Most Valuable Player (MVP) is the annual award that is handed out at the end of each Chinese Basketball Association (CBA) regular season to the league's most valuable player. From the league's inaugural 1995–96 season until the 2011–12 season, only Chinese/Taiwanese players were eligible to win the award. Since the 2012–1

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "CBA: Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$123 in lifetime turnover and $277 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for cba contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "CBA: Winner"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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