Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 78,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 78,400 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 78,800 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 79,200 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 79,600 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 80,400 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 80,800 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 81,200 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market tracks Bitcoin's closing price on the BTC/USDT pair at Binance during the 1-hour candle ending 10PM ET on 7 May 2026. The settlement hinges on Binance's official "Close" price for that specific hourly candle, with resolution occurring the following day. The current 100% implied probability reflects the order book's pricing across PolyMarket, where traders are pricing near-certainty for the specified threshold being breached.
Bitcoin's volatility profile over multi-year horizons provides context for interpreting such extreme probabilities. Historical precedent shows that 12-month price ranges typically span 30–50% from any given point, though intraday hourly candles exhibit considerably tighter distributions around prevailing spot levels. A 100% crowd probability on a specific price threshold roughly 18 months forward suggests either an exceptionally high strike price relative to current spot, or minimal liquidity depth in the order book creating wide bid-ask spreads that distort the displayed probability.
Traders should monitor macroeconomic calendar events in the weeks preceding May 2026, particularly US inflation data and Federal Reserve communications, which historically correlate with Bitcoin directional moves. Regulatory announcements from major jurisdictions and spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain material catalysts. The specific settlement window—ending 2 May 2026 at 02:00 UTC—means traders have a defined period to assess whether conditions have shifted sufficiently to reprice the market away from its current extremes before the candle in question closes.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin above ___ on May 7, 10PM ET?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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